It should be: {FORUMS_TOPICS_NEWPOLLURL}
Below the tpl starting from line 61 of sed-light skin.
<!-- BEGIN: FORUMS_SECTIONS_POLLS -->
<a href="{FORUMS_TOPICS_NEWPOLLURL}" style="float:left;"><img src="skins/{PHP.skin}/img/system/newpoll.gif" alt="" /></a>
<!-- END: FORUMS_SECTIONS_POLLS -->
... can we help you ...
